Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Propels The Villans' Improbable Title Charge

A mere eight weeks ago when the young forward was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery berated him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, the question was whether Rogers' form were a sign or the source of the team's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

The Manager's Celebration of Elation

In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was far more favourable. When the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery tore off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win any of their first six games, now sit a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Serious Challengers?

This is a particularly tough query to answer. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.

According to statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a team which has put together ten consecutive victories, they look strangely fragile – but right now the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more when facing the Red Devils.

His opener originated from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the post from a wide position. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

An Unstoppable Force

Can It Last?

Logic says not. Against United, the opponents registered more efforts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.

A statistical correction might be the biggest rival the club will encounter in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the top corner forever.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.

  • The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
  • Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he resembled in Germany.
  • The defensive duo are set to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.

The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the hero positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.

Tara Wilkinson MD
Tara Wilkinson MD

A business strategist with over 15 years of experience in corporate consulting and digital transformation.