Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
